THE ‘CHA-CHA’ TRAIN HAS LEFT THE STATION

Desperate times call for desperate solutions.
The Year 2010 - and the electoral moment of truth - looks forbiddingly close for those whose necks are getting closer to the hanging noose. Indeed.
The woefully low approval rating of PGMA by the Filipino people - in fact, the worst among post-Marcos presidents - makes 2010 look like Good Friday for the Palace subalterns.
A PGMA endorsement will certainly be a kiss of death. Besides, the Administration does not really have a viable, winnable candidate to date. Even Vice President Noli de Castro is, strictly speaking, an independent - not an administration puree.
But even if he was a GMA stool pigeon, De Castro now rates about 22% of national poll surveys - but the rest of the majority are Opposition. Which means, if the Opposition fields one candidate - theoretically speaking - "Ka Bayan" De Castro will be trounced 88% (opposition) versus (22%) De Castro.
PGMA and cohorts desperately need a "friendly" president to be elected in 2010 - to provide the firewall to shield them from the avalanche of charges - criminal and administrative. Barring that, some of them may have to shop now for countries that will have no extradition treaty with the Philippines.
In fairness - the Palace and its local supporters - have been singing in unison that they are not plotting an extension of the president. That is a political fireball, of course, that can germinate into EDA IV, they realize early enough.
But wait a minute - is there no legal wait out here before 2010? - they chorused.
Thus the "cha-cha" train that left the station is not a runaway locomotive, by any means. It left on schedule, according to the charts.
Only fools and the naive can believe the new Cha-Cha Initiative does not have the blessings of the Palace. It is Rep. Luis Villafuerte-directed, a staunch leader of KAMPI, the political party founded by the President. The two faithful boys of the president - Mikey and Dato - are assiduously recruiting signatories (178 is 3/4 of 238 - now 160 have signed).
Now, knowing how PGMA runs her shop - like a stern disciplinarian-tutor, can we disabuse our mind that she will let this important strategy go full speed without her say-so? Fortunately, most of us were not born yesterday.
But what are the chances of the "cha-cha" train getting to its destination- and its ETA?
Under the Constitution-and the House being bicameral- all issues are voted separately by the Senate and the Lower House. They cannot even create a barangay, or rename a highway or pass a budget - without the Houses voting separately. How can they ram this to the bull-necked senators now?
The Senate - the independent mavericks - crossed party lines last week that railroading the Cha-cha Initiative (through a Constituent Assembly) to the Senate will be "bloody and over their dead bodies." Strong words, those.
Almost to a man and a woman, the Senate will vote down the Con-Ass Joke except for a Lito Lapid who is laging "lito-lito" as to where he stands or perhaps a Revilla, whose legislative mindset is as dull as his showbiz record is as colorful.
Yes, even as ordinary laymen - people will question that with such an important matter such as revising the Constitution - how can one vote of a congressman elected by 100,000 voters be equal to one vote of a senator elected by 14 million Filipinos? But that's what the Con-Ass(ers) like us to believe.
Failing, that the Con-Ass Conspirators will make it a "justice-able controversy" by forcing the Supreme Court to decide if Congress can vote separately or jointly. Our take is that under the present Supreme Court composition -that initiative is doomed to fail with the feisty Chief Justice Puno being sturdy as an oakwood in matters like this.
Strategy-wise, they might opt to wait for next year when eight or even nine of the Supreme Court justices will retire and PGMA will of course be able to appoint her justices-of-choice - which could upset the present equation. The role of the Judicial Bar Council, sad to say, has clearly been ministerial - and what a sitting president wants, the sitting president usually gets. Gets, ninyo?
Assuming the SC votes with them in 2009, how much time do the Con-Ass Conspirators have without being overtaken by the revved-up race for the presidency in May 2010?
The best thing they can do is to insert the question in the 2010 elections -whether or not the people would want to change the Constitution. It is hard to argue -that we should not vote for some changes in the Constitution.
But by that time, the Philippines will have elected a President and a Vice President who must finish the term up to 2016.
Even if they opt to have a Constitutional Convention (with new elected delegates) after 2010- framing a new Constitution will take at least a year or so to complete. So the other strategic aim for a Parliamentary form of government that would allow PGMA to run as Parliamentarian representing Pampanga and reign as Prime Minister - may have to take a back seat. Or will it?
Certainly, not all who voted for the Cha-Cha have polluted minds. For the record, our three solons - Chatto, Cajes and Jala voted for it but they want a Constitutional Convention to make the amendments to our 21-year old Laws of the Land.
Crucial changes would be possible: change from presidential to parliamentary (to avoid gridlocks-sic), bicameral to unicameral, from LGUs to Federal States -on the political front. On the economic front - liberal foreign entry into utilities, media, education, mining, property ownership, among others, to boost investments - and generate jobs.
All those excellent subjects for debate - could go down the drain, however, once the issue of term extension and the ambition to return to power (via whatever route) becomes the focal issue.
That is the problem with a presidency that is dealing with a "trust issue" with its people. Even if it means well - and it probably does - people still sneer and wants to peek behind the curtains to find out if nothing illicit is happening between the sons' ardent devotion to Mother Dear and Press Secretary Jess Dureza's "faux pas".
The "faux pas" happened (for which Dureza already apologized) during a pre-meeting prayer where -the subconscious mind of Dureza -verbalized mindlessly his ardent wish for his Boss Lady to reign beyond 2010.
Madame Lady President, of course, let out her famous frown - because that was really "getting the cat out of the bag."
So Dureza did not really suffer some "slip of the tongue" malady -but of the Palace displaying some slip to be showing.
Be that as it may- the "cha-cha" train is full steam ahead. Let us just hope that it will not be like the famous Latin America dance cha-cha where (for the male version, at least) it is one step forward - and four steps backwards.
Sad indeed, that would be. Let us wait and see.